The blue-eyed dilemma

During my conversation a few days ago with Pakistan’s Defence Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, he opened up about a complex episode in Pakistan’s politics in the recent past.

Asif says that his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), was given two separate chances to take control – first in Punjab, and later at a national level. The first offer came in April 2019, suggesting PML-N could run Punjab’s government, and then move up to the national stage by December that year. A similar opportunity came up again in March 2021.

Interestingly, Asif disputes the idea that the current army chief, despite his role as DG ISI at that time, was involved in these political maneuvers. He absolved General Asim Munir from being a part of the group that approached him and two other PML-N leaders, who couldn’t attend the meetings because of logistical problems.

These offers highlight the establishment’s unhappiness with the ruling party, the Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf, only a year after they had been put in power and shows that despite the public messaging of being on one page, cracks had already started to surface in what was known in the Pakistani media as the hybrid setup.

The PML-N, still reeling from recent difficulties, understandably took these offers with a pinch of salt. The carrot and stick policy was not working out as ultimately the party would turn almost all of these offers down.

This complex political game, filled with secret meetings between PML-N leaders, top officials and go-betweens, continued for some time. A key moment happened in March 2021, when a media boss visited Asif in jail. According to Asif, during this meeting, he was given a phone, and the caller, worried about the country’s path, suggested another possible deal, depending on his party leadership’s approval. But, like the earlier offers, this one was also rejected.

While it’s still a guess as to how many opposition leaders were persuaded to consider a governmental takeover, it was clear that the establishment’s favoured choice, who had been quickly thrust into Pakistani politics as a new hope, had become a problem.

The departure of leaders from PTI, leaving behind their once-admired ‘Kaptaan’, is a strong reminder of how unstable power can be. It shows how hard it is to turn down offers that promise comfort and an easy return to power.

Believing that a fragile house of cards can act as a strong fortress to challenge those who hold all the power, is a mistake. The upcoming elections offer a chance for political groups to make things right. It’s an opportunity to get approval from the public that everyone respects, not through secret deals and shortcuts.

Also those setting the pitch must know that tampering with it comes at a cost – sometimes much higher than anticipated.